In the Middle

So why is the International Zone getting pummeled by Iranian manufactured rockets and mortars? Just before Easter, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki, who is a Shiite heading the Iraqi Dawa Party, traveled to the southern Iraqi city of Basrah to oversee military operations against Jaysh al Mahdi (JAM), the Iranian supported, armed component of the Office of the Martyr Sadr (OMS), a political organization headed by Moqtada al Sadr (MAS).

A majority of JAM fighters consists of Shi’a youth who feel disenfranchised by the Government of Iraq (GOI), which coincidentally is headed by another Shi’a political party, called the Dawa. The so-called Sadr Trend, a loose affiliation of Shi’a political parties headed by OMS has a minority representation in the Iraqi Council of Representatives. Open source estimates of total JAM members throughout Iraq go as high as 40,000 to 60,000 irregular fighters armed with light weapons, machine guns, RPGs and networks skilled in the emplacement and use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs).

Although JAM ostensibly is an armed religiously-oriented militia it also is an extensive criminal enterprise. Various JAM cell leaders regularly engage in extortion, intimidation, kidnapping and reprisal killings as a way to make money (for background, just watch any episode of “The Sopranos”). This is historically so in the Al Basrah province in the south of Iraq. Maliki has always had his eyes on JAM in Basrah and has wanted to neutralize their influence. Ned Parker, of the Los Angeles Times puts it well:

“Enmity has long festered between the two sides: one a ruling party that has struggled against the widespread perception that it gained power on the back of the U.S. occupation, the other a populist movement that has positioned itself as a critic of the new order.”

The GOI military operation he initiated last week just before Easter in hindsight seems ill-conceived and poorly planned. In any case, irregular JAM fighters put up much more of an effective defense of their turf in Basrah than anyone in the GOI anticipated, effectively grinding the Iraqi Army to a stalemate.

MAS watched this all unfold from Iran, where he is undergoing additional religious studies (MAS’s goal is to become a full Ayatollah like his late influential father, Mohammad Baqir al-Sadr). Reacting to the ensuing conflict, MAS issued various statements last week that JAM should resist both the Iraqi Army and “the occupiers,” his favorite allusion for Coalition Forces (CF). The JAM elements in and around Basrah immediately took up arms against the Iraqi Army while those JAM elements surrounding the International Zone here in Baghdad interpreted this announcement to begin wholesale indirect fire (IDF) on CF and GOI targets. I suppose they feel they are just doing there part.

Coalition Forces find themselves in an indelicate position, caught between providing support to the GOI and not wanting to get involved in a sectarian conflict between rival Shi’a organizations (Dawa versus OMS). Fortunately, a furious, behind-the-scenes political negotiation ensured this week between MAS and the GOI brokered by Iranian officials. MAS agreed to reign in JAM providing several political demands were met. Two days ago, MAS ordered yet another cease fire which appears to be slowing taking effect in Basrah and Baghdad. This hints that some of his demands will be met by the GOI while providing enough of a face-saving end to the crisis from the GOI’s point of view.