Teflon

In the battle of political and military wills that transpired last week between Iraqi president Nouri al Maliki and Shiite Cleric Moqtada al Sadr there was a clear winner and loser. Maliki’s foray into Basrah wasn’t well planned and the fledgling Iraqi Army did not perform as well as he hoped; some members, no doubt Shiites, laid down their arms, refused to fight, or defected to the Jaysh al Mahdi (the Mahdi Army) they were sent to fight against. Maliki expended an enormous amount of political share during this endeavor and now is on the defensive.

As the Iraqi Army fought al Sadr’s Mahdi Army last week, Maliki moved between demanding the Mahdi Army disband to offering them money for heavy weapons. In the background, Iran is widely rumored to have brokered negotiations between the Maliki government and al Sadr himself. A ruinous Shiite versus Shiite conflict would not be good for all concerned: Maliki’s Dawa Party, al Sadr’s Office of the Martyr Sadr (OMS), and Iran, which extends enormous influence in Shiite Iraq. Ultimately, al Sadr called for a truce before things really deteriorated giving Maliki a political way out and avoiding a potential military disaster.

What’s next is anyone’s guess but al Sadr clearly emerged stronger. He is either very intelligent or extremely lucky; it’s probably a little of both. After all, in 2004, the Mahdi Army fought an intense battle with the US Army in Sadr City incurring heavy casualties. In August of last year, the Mahdi Army fought against a rival Shi’a militia resulting in over fifty dead Shi’a civilians. In both cases, al Sadr knew when to throttle back the violence, calling for political discourse, and ordering the Mahdi Army to lay down their weapons and mingle back into the civilian populace of Sadr City. Remarkably, al Sadr emerged stronger politically after each episode of violence. The episode in Basrah is no different. Now Al Sadr and OMS appear positioned to increase their political reach in the Iraqi provincial elections next October.